Let's be honest

OK, so let's be honest here: I am not interested in using this blog in the same way I used this blog in the past. Previously, it was a place where I would place my opinions and analysis of all things political. Since that's pretty much what I deal with all day in graduate school in political science, I'd rather this became a more personal blog. I'll put up some stories, some rants, maybe a recipe here and there, a beer/scotch/bourbon review, or whatever. No one reads this thing anyway, so I can feel comfortable knowing that it doesn't matter what I post.

On that note, thus begins the new chapter in A Shot of Jack.

Great figures for Obama

Brian Schaffner at Pollster added an interesting post today, so I thought I'd share it.  Basically, it discusses how the latest tracking poll has Obama up by 8% and at 50%, numbers which, if present in October, normally translate into November victories.  He has some good figures with details.

MN a new tossup?

A SurveyUSA poll released yesterday has McCain up by one point in Minnesota, a state I still believe will go Obama.  The reasons for this uptick in the polls there for McCain?  Markos Moulitsas (of DailyKos and the Research2000 poll) says it might be due to spending.

So what happens if I were to move MN into the tossup category?  That takes ten electors from Obama and puts them in the tossup column, giving Obama 250, by my count, and putting 114 into the tossup column.

Still, Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight makes a good point - McCain's spending in Minnesota may have hurt him in other battleground states.  Does this mean that states like North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida can move to Obama because of spending?  I'd be hesitant to say so, but anything can happen.

Recent Polling Data

I've been scouring FiveThirtyEight.com and Pollster.com for the latest polling data for the past few weeks and I've come to a conclusion that many reached a long time ago:  This campaign is Barack Obama's to lose.  Sure, it seemed that would be the situation back when he won the primaries, but McCain deserves credit for several moves that pushed him upwards in the polls.  First, he chose Sarah Palin -- granted, she lacks experience and has had several "oops" moments, but her choice as the Republican VP candidate was certainly met with enthusiasm in the polls.  Also, McCain received the usual post-convention bump.  Finally, he didn't lose a lot of ground as a result of the debate last week.

This last point is somewhat of a controversial one, as numerous friends of mine have made the (often valid) point that people don't vote based on debate performance.  While I normally agree, the undecideds are definitely McCain's best chances right now, and they are certainly the most likely ones to choose based on debate performance.

Anyway, give McCain credit -- the mood of the country clearly favors Democrats, despite the low approval ratings of the Democratically-controlled Congress, yet McCain has kept it close thus far.

That said, I think it's time to say that, barring some miracle, Obama will win in November.  Looking at trend lines produced by Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com (both extremely reputable), I count eight true tossup states:  Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and New Hampshire.  With the rest of my math, I have Obama currently with 260 electoral votes and McCain with 174, with 104 in the tossup category.  This truly means that it would be difficult for McCain to win, as he would need 7 of the 8 tossup states (the ones he could lose to Obama being either New Hampshire or Nevada) to get the necessary 270.  Some say Pennsylvania and Iowa are also tossups, but I think it's becoming fairly clear that both are increasingly likely to vote Obama, so I gave them to him.  If you put those two in the tossup category, however, the numbers favor Obama 232 to McCain's 174.

The "true" tossup situation, in my mind, plays out like this:

Nevada, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida seem to lean McCain.

Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire seem to lean Obama.

If these states go that way, Obama wins 286-252.  In my mind, Virginia and North Carolina are the real mysteries in this election.  In Virginia, every Democrat since 2001 that has won any race has really won on the coattails of Mark Warner, the state's 69th governor and an extremely popular Democrat.  Warner is running for the open Senate seat, vacated by Republican John Warner, and that could see a huge turnout for Democrats who love him.  It would seem, then, that in an odd turn of events, Obama could ride Warner's coattails to victory in VA, which, if my math is right -- which it may very well not be -- would give at least 273 electoral votes (and the election) to Obama.

In North Carolina, you've always got to consider those mountain Republicans in the western part of the state.  I'm not sure if any research has been done on this topic, but I would suspect they may be overrepresented in the polls.  In areas like Charlotte, urban areas with a lot of young business men and women who rely solely on cell phones, support for Obama may be underestimated.  In a post on FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver calculated that cell phone-only voters -- who don't show up in most major polls, which use landlines and random-digit dialing to poll -- favor Obama and this may translate into a 2.8% increase in support for him nationally.

That being said, I should mention that Silver sees Obama winning with over 300 electoral votes.  As I said earlier, my tally of 286 depended on states voting exactly as the trend lines predict right now.  Of course, in many states, such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, both candidates have solid organizations, but I think the argument can be made that, should the elections in those states turn into groundwars, Obama's got the troops, so to say.  That is, his organizations in those states are probably superior to McCain's.  If that is true, and that organization leads to an Obama victory in each of those states, we could be looking at Obama with 348 electoral votes.  I don't see it happening, but it certainly is possible.

One final interesting thing to note is that if the Eastern time zone states are able to be called by the networks with no major setbacks, we could know the winner fairly early in the evening.  That is, according to my math, if Obama wins Virginia, he wins the election.  If he wins North Carolina, he wins the election.  If he wins Florida, he wins the election.

Please keep in mind that I am, in no way, an expert on these matters, but I do hope to study more about the intricacies of polling while in graduate school.  Also, in the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that I am an Obama supporter.  I've tried to push down my biases as much as possible in the preceding analysis, but of course, there could be some error as the result of my preferences.

Immigration

In today's New York Times, there appeared an editorial utterly fustigating the wholly ineffective anti-illegal immigration fence being placed along the U.S.-Mexican border from San Diego to Texas.

This fence thing pisses me off, but not quite as much as the ignorant commentary surrounding the immigration issue. For instance, I used to be quite the fan of Walton & Johnson, a morning radio show featuring two men -- Walton and Johnson -- but a wide array of personalities, as one of them (Walton, I believe) provides the voices to a variety of characters, including a stereotypical gay male, black man and redneck. Unfortunately, these men decided to make illegal immigration their pet issue and constantly comment on it throughout their show. Most of their commentary involves "taking our country back" and extolling the virtues of storeowners who have refused service to those customers lacking proficiency in the English language.

Legally entering this country is a long, difficult process and the tens of thousands of immigrants who enter illegally every day are not skirting our laws because they dislike our country or way of life -- it's because they need work, work we won't do. One idea I heard to fix the problem of labor is to hire college students during the summer to pick grapes for wine, cabbage, do construction, etc. I am a college student, recently unemployed, and I refuse to pick grapes or cabbage or work in construction. My friends are similar in their distaste for manual labor -- it sounds snobby to say, I know, but we feel overqualified. If a Mexican father of four wants to do that job so he can feed his wife and children back in Juarez, I'm all for it.

Do I think illegal immigation should go unpunished? No, I think those who desire citizenship should be given citizenship, forced to pay back taxes they avoided by working illegally, and then given a hearty pat on the back and sent on their way. I think we should punish those who hire illegal workers, because they cause the problems. Despite what I previously said, there are some jobs Americans would do, for the right amount. Employers look to save a few bucks and drive to the local gas station and pick up some workers they can pay very little. Hike up the wages a few bucks and pay an American!

Anyway, the whole message I'm trying to deliver is this: Don't blame the immigrants. They want what you and I have -- freedom, equality, opportunity and the ability to support a family.

Graduation, the state of the race, etc.

Graduation was a few weeks ago, so that was fun. This past weekend I went to Athens, GA to find an apartment (a successful mission) and then to Atlanta to see my brother and his wife. It was a good trip, but it really drove home that I won't be in Baton Rouge for much longer. Time is flying and I'm afraid of airplanes, I suppose. I hope to make the most of my two remaining months in Baton Rouge, being with friends and doing things I've always wanted to do. If anyone reads this, please let me know of some fun things to do in Baton Rouge about which most people do not know. It sounds like a good way to get the most out of these final two months...

As far as the '08 race is going, it's gotten to be a real drag. My Republican friends are down because their race is nonexistent and my Democratic friends are down because Clinton and Obama are always at each other's throats. Despite what many of my die-hard, Hillary-supporting friends might think, it certainly is time for this race to go to Obama. It's his to lose, and she is hurting the party more than helping it. If she wants a dialogue about issues, that's fine. She can do that from the sidelines while Obama and McCain duke it out. I really am sick of seeing her on CNN's political ticker, raising a glass of beer with citizens of the state (or, as in the case of Puerto Rico, territory) which shall be holding the upcoming primary. I won't go into details about why Obama has it pretty much locked up, but I will say this: When the general election fights begin, it could get very ugly and, in the end, the most interesting thing to see will be who the candidates choose as their running mates.

I think I'll now bore the five or so readers who will see this with an update of my readings. I've read a few great books in 2008, so I'll itemize them now.

• The Know-It-All by A.J. Jacobs: This guy is the editor-at-large for Esquire, and he's a terrific writer. He read the entire Encyclopaedia Britannica, in order, in a year, and the book is organized by letter of the alphabet, and further organized by entry. He doesn't include every entry, of course, but he has a little story relating to the ones he has chosen. It's a brilliant premise and the writing was terrific, but it was fairly easy to tell it was Jacobs's first attempt at a book, as there is no real conclusion, no bigger picture tying the whole story together.
  
• The Year of Living Biblically by A.J. Jacobs: His second foray into the world of nonfiction books, this one is decidedly better than the first. Jacobs spends an entire year living strictly according to biblical law and chronicles his experiences. For the first eight months of the year, Jacobs, a nonpracticing Jew, lives according to the laws outlined in the Hebrew Bible (a.k.a. the Old Testament) and spends the final four months living according to the New Testament. It's funny, well-written, intriguing, and the experiences are tied together into a bigger picture in this case. That bigger picture is Jacobs's own faith. It evolves from apathetic agnosticism to a sort of spiritual self-awareness. In all, it's a very rewarding read that forces one to reexamine the role faith plays in his or her life.
• American Creation by Joseph Ellis: This one was interesting. Ellis, a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian (Founding Brothers), examines the twenty year period beginning with victory in the American Revolution and ending with the Louisiana Purchase. He has a real knack for language and weaves a wonderful picture, but it's hard to say that I thoroughly enjoyed reading it. Ellis is occasionally a bit too verbose and his analogies (there are plenty of them) often seen forced. In the end, it's a good history book, but I think it lacks the oomph of, say, David McCullough's 1776.
• Don Catrin de la Fachenda by Fernandez de Lizardi: Yes, yes, I'm including a book I read for my Spanish class. It's technically an early Mexican romantic novel (that doesn't mean there are lots of love scenes, it means it's sort of an idealistic novel), but I think it falls more into the picaresque genre. The story centers on don Catrin, a military man who seems to have chosen his career because of the status and clothes accompanying it. He is a man of loose morals who, even in the end, remains true to his life code. It was an entertaining read.
• Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America by Morris P. Fiorina: I read this one for my public opinion course, and it presents some interesting arguments. His main argument is that the commonly-held view of an extremely polarized American electorate is a flawed view. I won't bore with details, but it certainly is an interesting take.
• Fierce Invalids Home from Hot Climates by Tom Robbins: This guy can write, plain and simple. The novel is weird, though. It follows Switters, an ex-CIA operative who is wheelchair-bound (but not for medical reasons), through Seattle, Sacramento, Peru, Turkey, Syria, and Thailand. It's fantastic, outlandish, and enthralling. I plan to read more by this guy.

Okay, I realize the list isn't very long, but I was trying to avoid letting my grades slide. Anyway, that's just about it for this post. I hope to keep it up a lot more now that I have free time.

What I've Learned in My College Years

I wanted to write this as a column, but my editors agreed it was too similar to a "farewell" column, which is prohibited. So here it is:

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What I've Learned in My College Years
Jack Collens

• Partisan politics is an evil rivaled only by the designated hitter, the New York Yankees and the Florida Gators.
• Anytime a professor says he/she will show a movie in the next class, there really is no need to attend.
• Tequila is an evil, evil mistress.
• Roul's makes a good hamburger, but Brewbacher's is better.
• There exist in Baton Rouge no restaurants in which a decent po-boy can be found.
• Too many students graduate from LSU with degrees in a foreign language, while not being able to speak that language.
• The best time to be had in Baton Rouge is at Plucker's on Thursday nights at 10 pm, when the management hosts a Rock Band tournament.
• I am an awesome singer.
• Half the people featured in Tiger Weekly's "Fashion Police" section probably rolled out of bed and went to class in their pajamas - a perfectly acceptable practice among college students.
• Professors who make finals optional are gifts from whatever god you may worship.
• Studying in Middleton is insane - coffee shops are much more conducive to most people's studying habits.
• Procrastination is good: pressure breeds quality.
• The stereotyping of any college clique - the traditional Greeks, the so-called "quad crew," the black fraternities and sororities, engineering majors, etc. - may have some truth, but prejudice based on such stereotypes is a disservice to the many good people in each group.
• The freshman fifteen is a myth. It should be called the freshman forty.
• Pre-med students are anal retentive.
• Pre-law students don't give a damn.
• Grad students are underappreciated.
• Professors are human beings, too.
• I can drink a lot of whiskey and still be coherent.
• All students should have the opportunity to study abroad - it's a tremendous experience and cost should never be a factor leading some to decline (Read: LSU needs more study abroad scholarships).
  
• The single best pizza in Baton Rouge can be found at the newly-opened Reginelli's. It's called the Parthenon. Add prosciutto -- you won't be disappointed.
• Reading a newspaper online makes you think journalists are avid admirers of the one-sentence paragraph. Read a newspaper in print, and you'll realize that longer paragraphs look like novels in print form.
• The mark-up on Whole Foods' produce is absurd. Better prices can be found at your local produce store (e.g., South Side Produce on Perkins).
• One bite of an organic apple and you'll realize - organic does make a difference.
• CATS drivers need to realize that pumping the brakes is a wholly ineffective and uncomfortable way to stop a bus.
• Finding a sexual partner is like buying a car: Some are willing to pay for luxury or fantastic performance, while others just want something that'll get the job done.
• Sushi is God's gift to man. That is, if God is Japanese.
• There are two schools of thought among those who follow NASCAR. The first holds that NASCAR is a real sport and merits proper media attention, while the second holds that NASCAR is just an excuse to watch outrageous accidents and drink excessive quantities of beer.
• I fall into the latter category.
• To quote Jim Gaffigan, regarding movies vs. the books upon which they are based: "You know what I enjoyed about the movie? No reading. Two hours, then I could take a nap."
• Loitering in movie theater lobbies makes you feel like a pedophile.
• Facebook is slowly consuming our minds and will, one day, rule the world.
• Homeless people can often play a mean guitar.
• Of course, it could be that people who exert the time and energy required to play a mean guitar have no income and, therefore, are homeless.
• The number of people who still confuse "their" and "there," "your" and "you're," and "than" and "then" is astounding.
• After spending 4 years of my life trying to understand politics, I realize I still don't get it and never will. That's the point.
• Baton Rouge has some very disappointing Hooters franchises.
• On certain summer weekends, the pool at the complex formerly known as University House-Brightside resembles a Girls Gone Wild video.
• In most cases, a professor who asks you to read his or her book for the class just wants the royalties -- the book itself has little importance in the context of the course.
• Completing The Chimes's Round the World is one of the most impressive feats in my life.
• There are some really, really nasty beers out there.
• Raising Cane's is evil, but the sauce is oh-so-tasty.
• That's what she said.
• Getting to know your professor will improve your chances of getting him or her to bump you up if you fall just short of an A.
• LSU girls are mighty attractive, but Florida and Ole Miss have us beat... bigtime.
• "I'm buying" are the two most revered words in my vocabulary.
• Flirting is an art. I am not an artist.
• Jack Daniel's + trampoline = injury
• Louisiana has the best food on the planet.
• New Orleans will recover.
• The Saints will win a Superbowl in my lifetime.
• The Hornets will crush anyone who stands in their way.
• LSU will always be home.
• A small group of close friends beats a large group of acquaintances any day.

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That's all I've got. If anyone wants to add anything or do their own, I'd love to read them.

Resignation gives hope to Cuban baseball players - Opinion

Resignation gives hope to Cuban baseball players - Opinion

A Month Later...

So, it's been almost a month since I last posted. A lot has happened since then in the political world. For one, Mike Huckabee has surged in the polls and captured the Iowa GOP caucus. Barack Obama soared to victory for the Democrats, winning by 8 points over John Edwards and 9 points over a surprisingly weak showing by Hillary Clinton. But back to the biggest surprise -- Mike Huckabee. Personally, I saw Huckabee as the inevitable winner emerging from the attacks between Romney and Giuliani. What I didn't see coming, however, was this: John McCain making a surge -- a term he himself is not unlikely to use often in debates, albeit in different contexts.

Now, where do we stand? Well, I think the two parties are in the middle of drastically different campaigns. I can honestly say I've been following the Republican side a little more closely than the Democratic side. I know this is the cardinal sin of any truly unbiased political observer, but it seems to me the more interesting debates are happening between the major Republican candidates -- of which, I might add, there are four: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. Democrats can only claim three, and those three -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards -- are engaged in a quiet race, when compared to that of the Republicans.

Take, for example, the New Hampshire debates of Jan. 5, which aired on ABC. The unique juxtaposition of the two debates illustrated the stark contrast of the two races. Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul were constantly at each other's throats, competing not only for the candidacy but for the very microphone from which they might offer their opinions. On the other hand, the Democratic debate that followed was remarkably different in tone. Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Bill Richardson could be seen laughing frequently and offering good-natured jabs at one another.

Another interesting aspect of the New Hampshire debates was the introduction of Facebook, the social networking Web site, into the mix. Voters have seen YouTube make itself known, and now Facebook got its chance, with young voters logging on to express their views. Unfortunately, Facebook remains the darling of youth voters. This could be seen through the Facebook polls stating that 41 percent of Facebook users support Ron Paul, versus only 6 percent nationwide in recent polls. This is not to claim that only young voters support Ron Paul, although such an assertion may not be unwarranted, given what I've seen on the networking Web site and what I've seen in statewide polls. More on Ron Paul in a later post, if he stays in contention ...

So who do I think won the debates? On the Republican side (which is truly the only debate I watched closely), I'd have to say I thought Huckabee appeared the most sincere -- notice I said "appeared" -- while McCain was constantly beating the experience drum. I also have to give props to Fred Thompson, for being the most effective communicator, undoubtedly the result of his acting experience. Romney was on the defensive for most of the debate, so it's difficult to emerge victorious in that situation, but I felt he handled himself well. Giuliani was praising Ronald Reagan for much of the debate and, as my Daily Reveille editor, Neal Hebert, called him, "Rudy 91ul1ani" talked up his experience in dealing with issues of national security. None of the other candidates seem to take Ron Paul seriously, as evidenced by their constant dismissals of much of what he says. An important thing to remember for these people, however, would be Paul's support among young voters. Any candidate who wishes to galvanize the 18-24 age group after Paul's apparently inevitable exit from the race would be wise to start recognizing Paul's force in this race. It's tough to get my age group to vote, and Ron Paul seems to have lit a fire under the backsides of many of my peers. If I'm Romney, McCain or Giuliani, I'm thinking about recognizing that some of Paul's plans might just be viable, so I can get him out there fighting for me in a few months.

Okay, so who actually won? Despite my lengthy discussion of Ron Paul above, I do not think he ever comes away looking good in a debate -- many his policy proposals are simply too impractical in my eyes. Romney on the defensive couldn't have won, either. I might be inclined to say Huckabee, but his genuineness just couldn't overcome Fred Thompson's polished-yet-candid style. McCain still seems to be recruiting hardcore rightwingers and neocons by mentioning his support of Bush and, in one painful segment, claiming the debate needed to "stop and give credit to the President." Giuliani was busy courting the rightwingers as well by calling Ronald Reagan his "hero" and dropping the former president's name as often as he could. I'd have to give this one to Thompson, although it's probably a little too late for him.

For the Democrats, I need to check it out on someone's TiVo or, possibly, on YouTube in a few days. Five hours of debating is more than I can take during the holidays.

Well, I hope this was a good monthly update. I hope to keep this a little more up-to-date as I get back into the working mindframe.



Also, I'd like to end a post here and there with a question for the readers. This post's question: I'm currently reading American Creation by Joseph Ellis and I'm noticing that a lot of the correspondence written in that era (roughly 1783-1803) featured capitalized letters in a lot of odd places. For instance, Adams wrote in early 1776, "We cannot force Events. We must SufferPeople to make their own Way in many Cases." Why on Earth were many of those words capitalized? I've thought about using them for added emphasis, but many of the cases I've found are baffling. Anyone?

Introduction

When I was younger, I always felt confused by politics. I felt that growing older, taking political science classes and keeping up with current events would greatly improve my understanding. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Politics remains as much a mystery today as it was ten years ago. It is even quite possible that I am more confused now than ever before. There are so many questions, so many unexplained phenomena -- it would seem the more I learn, the less confident I am in my understanding. I have come to accept this as a sign that the study of politics is a neverending rollercoaster ride, one which you can easily start, but which will never end. The highs and lows and corkscrews common to all rollercoasters are no strangers to the study of government. I hope you will join me in my quest to attain the unattainable: a complete grasp of all that may happen in politics.

A year ago, I applied for a weekly opinion column at the LSU Daily Reveille and was hired. It was a real revelation, in that I now had a suitable medium through which I may express my ideas (read: opinion). Once I was able to put together some coherent thoughts in my first column, I knew I had made the right decision. It was the job for me. At first, it was difficult to come up with a good topic each week for my column, titled "A Shot of Jack" (from which this blog received its name). Eventually, however, I overcame that and realized I had three to four good ideas each week. Now that I have a little time on my hands (most of the grad school applications are done and I only have 12 hours in the spring semester), I figured I'd try to keep up a blog with all my thoughts.

So here we are. You, my readers, have the distinct privilege of looking through my thoughts and musings on the enigmas involved in the world of politics. Lucky for all of you, this is a particularly interesting time to observe -- for the first time since 1968, we have a presidential election in which neither the incumbent president nor his vice president will run. It is this interesting twist which has encouraged me start this blog when I did. I hope to keep you all up to date on my interpretations of the happenings in Election 2008. My first post, hopefully, will come within the next couple of days, which will be primarily an overview of an issue which I feel is shaping the Republican side of the race: religion. After that, I'll probably cover the issue which seems to have graced the Democratic debates with its presence: experience.

So stay tuned, this is going to get interesting ...